Independent, Fee-Only Financial Advisor

Independent, Fee-Only Financial Advisor

Tuesday, September 18, 2012

being the first

Whenever the market is rallying, there is always someone trying to call the top. There is a bit of pride in saying "I was the first to call the top" or "I told you it was going down."

The latest such prophet of doom is Mark Hulbert. Citing work by former ValueLine research director Sam Eisenstadt, he notes that there is no more upside in the market. Eisenstadt did indeed predict that the S&P would reach 1460, and it has! That does not mean it cannot go higher (nor, when he made the prediction, did it mean that it would hit 1460). While Eisenstadt does anticipate a slight pullback (which happen, literally, all of the time) the aim of Hulbert appears to be cheered for being the first to call the top over.

SPY is only about a percent off its highs (two days ago) and is 39% up from its 52 week lows. I don't care to call the short term direction or destination of the market, so I will just keep this as one to watch.

As Mark Twain once said "The report of my death was an exaggeration."